American Public Opinion Turns Against Iran Ground War, Yet Military Options Remain Open
A new poll conducted by the Yukos Institute for the New York Times on April 2 reveals deep American reluctance to escalate the ongoing conflict with Iran into a ground war. According to the survey, only 14% of Americans support President Donald Trump sending U.S. troops to Iran, while a commanding 62% oppose any plan involving large-scale military action on Iranian soil. The remaining 24% offered no opinion or were undecided.
The poll also highlights a significant shift among Republicans, traditionally a key base of support for Trump's foreign policy. In the first week of the conflict, 41% of Republicans backed sending troops to Iran. That number has now dropped dramatically, with nearly 60% of Republican respondents opposing the deployment of U.S. ground forces. This erosion of support suggests that even within Trump's own party, the prospect of a prolonged and bloody ground invasion is deeply unpopular.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Red Line and a Diplomatic Lever
Despite public opposition, multiple reports indicate that the option of sending troops—or at least occupying strategic regions of Iran, such as the oil-rich coastal areas or the Strait of Hormuz—remains "still open" within the Trump administration and Cabinet. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of global oil passes, is currently patrolled and effectively controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Capturing the strait is a stated goal of Trump's strategy, but the president has repeatedly emphasized that the United States does not want to act alone.
Trump has stated that he wants to see the "liberation" of the Strait of Hormuz from the IRGC, but with active participation from European allies. To pressure NATO members into contributing, Trump has issued a stark threat: if the United States decides to intervene and Europe does not help, the U.S. may withdraw from NATO, arguing that the alliance has failed to support American interests. In a parallel move, Trump has also threatened to cut off military aid to Ukraine, which is currently in the midst of defending itself against Russia's ongoing invasion. These dual threats are widely seen as leverage to force European nations to commit to a coalition in the Gulf.
The Air War: Uncontested Supremacy
While the American public opposes a ground war, the ongoing US-Israeli air campaign against Iran has achieved remarkable success. Over the course of 34 days, coalition warplanes have flown nearly 20,000 sorties without losing a single aircraft to Iranian air defenses. Witnesses in Tehran and other Iranian cities have reported seeing US warplanes flying low over multiple areas, including the capital. Some Iranians even claimed to have seen a B-52 bomber operating without being fired upon—an indication that Iran's once-formidable integrated air defense system (IADS) has been largely neutralized.
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