Security experts and ex-NATO leaders are outlining the sequence of dangers that would emerge following a US exit from NATO, detailing the initial 72 hours of either an official or unofficial withdrawal. In the absence of a US commitment under Article 5, Russia might challenge NATO's eastern borders almost immediately. The framework of European nuclear deterrence would begin to crumble. The US intelligence-sharing systems among 32 NATO countries would start to decline. Around 150 US B61 nuclear gravity bombs stationed in Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Turkey would need to be relocated, resulting in a deterrent gap lasting from six to eighteen months. Energy supply routes through NATO-protected maritime channels would encounter interruptions, impacting US oil costs.
