According to several Western intelligence reports, Russia has officially reduced the threshold for deploying its nuclear arsenal since the onset of the Ukraine conflict. The updated Russian nuclear strategy now permits the use of tactical nuclear arms in reaction to conventional military losses, posing a direct threat to NATO nations backing Ukraine. In January 2026, nuclear doctrine specialist Sergei Karaganov indicated that if Europe persists in its support for Ukraine, the initial strike from Russia would aim at the UK and Germany. The NATO Nuclear Planning Group, which convened on June 18, 2026, affirmed that enhancing nuclear deterrent capabilities is the alliance's top priority in light of Russia's intensifying actions.
