For the first time since the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, analysis by UNITED24 Media indicates that the Kremlin is experiencing troop losses that outpace its ability to recruit new soldiers. The unsuccessful spring offensive of 2026 resulted in nearly 100,000 troops either killed or wounded between March and April, with May's statistics showing a similar trend. This failure to replace personnel marks a critical strategic turning point: an army that cannot keep its numbers above loss levels is incapable of sustaining prolonged offensive actions. Nevertheless, Moscow seems to be preparing for another mobilization of up to 100,000 additional soldiers, drawing from civilian sources that are increasingly resistant.
